The New Energy Stalemate in Ukraine

AI Summary

The authors describe an escalating energy conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in which both sides are adapting to attacks on energy infrastructure and the human and economic costs continue to grow. They argue that Ukraine has shown resilience against Russian strikes, while questioning whether Ukrainian long-range attacks can decisively damage Russia; drones and other technological adaptations may prolong and intensify future wars.

Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and former energy scholar at Moscow’s Russian Academy of Sciences, and Sergey Vakulenko, an oil and gas expert at Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center, argue that Russia and Ukraine are locked in an energy war that has become an adaptation spiral, despite growing human and economic costs and despite current US pressure on Ukraine. They observe Ukraine’s remarkable ability to withstand Russian strikes, while questioning claims that long-range Ukrainian strikes will be able to achieve game-changing damage on Russia. Ukraine and Russia have transformed the role of energy warfare in modern conflict, drawing on low costs drones but also new forms of technological resilience that are likely to make wars longer and more dangerous.