Kpler Suspects Gulf Producers Are Paying Iran for Safe Passage

AI Summary

Kpler estimates Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged about 16.5 million barrels per day in September, with some late-month days exceeding pre-war levels. Producers are using alternative pipelines and ports, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly involves U.S. military escorts and ship-to-ship transfers; the report raises the possibility that Gulf producers pay Iran for safe passage.

Kpler estimates Middle East crude and condensate exports averaged roughly 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September and exceeded the pre-war average of 18 million bpd on several days during the final week of the month. That recovery has done surprisingly little to bring oil prices back down, as we noted earlier this week. Producers are moving more crude through alternative pipelines and ports, while tankers moving through Hormuz increasingly rely on U.S. military escorts and vessel-intensive chains of ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. Brent crude…