China Thermal Coal Outlook: Domestic Supply Keeps Import Needs Contained

AI Summary

China's domestic supply of thermal coal is reducing the need for imports in 2026, although coal-fired electricity generation remains steady. Seaborne thermal coal arrivals declined 13.5% in the first five months of the year, indicating a shift in import demand.

China is entering the second half of 2026 with a smaller need for imported thermal coal, but not with a collapse in coal-fired electricity generation. Settled vessel records show that seaborne thermal coal arrivals fell 13.5% from a year earlier in January-May, to 109 million tonnes. Preliminary June and July records narrow the seven-month decline ...