Will Oil Really Go to $200 a Barrel as Iran Predicts?

AI Summary

Analysis examines the plausibility of Iran's prediction that oil could reach $200 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, which are linked to the broader conflict stemming from Hamas's October 2023 attacks on Israel. The piece explores wildcard geopolitical factors that could sustain Middle East upheaval and drive extreme oil price volatility for years.

There is an old military phrase that ‘no plan survives first contact with the enemy’, and it seems that Iran missed the memo on how it was meant to respond to the latest attacks on it by the U.S. and Israel. These, and the earlier attacks last year in the same vein, can be seen as an extension of the war effectively launched by Iran via its proxy Hamas’s murderous attacks of 7 October 2023 on Israel. In any event, wildcard factors are now in play that threaten sustained upheaval across the Middle East for years to come, and elevated…