‘Washington, Tehran exploring phased way out of war’

AI Summary

US and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased resolution to the ongoing conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz, including reopening the strait and lifting economic blockades. Both sides remain cautious, as neither wants to be the first to make concessions amid ongoing tensions and regional pressure.

• Reports suggest Tehran could reopen Hormuz, may drop toll demand for blockade relief; but ‘neither side wants to move first’ • Gulf states press Trump for post-midterms war strategy; 80 countries call for full restoration of Gulf shipping • UAE bars Iranian airline flights WASHINGTON: US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said. The strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, has become the central bargaining chip in efforts to end the war. Iran wants relief from a blockade that is strangling its economy; Washington wants free passage restored for ships on the vital oil route that Tehran has kept closed. Talks are complicated by a familiar diplomatic problem: neither side wants to move first. Two Iranian sources, two regional officials and two Western diplomats said the most workable option now on the table was a staged arrangement — Iran allowing ships through Hormuz in return for an end to the blockade and, potentially, access to frozen assets. “One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages. The first would be to end the blockade and reopen Hormuz,” a senior Iranian official said on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Such a deal would require Donald Trump to accept another interim arrangement, after a previous understanding collapsed in July. The US president has suggested a fuller agreement might only be reached after November’s midterm elections. A senior European official said Iranian negotiators arrived in New York “with a very long list of demands”. The White House, for its part, has shown little urgency. “Iran is desperate for a deal, President Trump holds all the cards and will make whatever decision is best for the United States,” a White House official said, adding that “crushing sanctions” and “one of the most successful blockades in history” had left Tehran “completely broke”. Trump, the official suggested, was content to let an “inevitable Iranian collapse” continue rather than be rushed into concessions. Dennis Ross, a former US negotiator, put the chances of a deal before the midterms at roughly 30 per cent, though he noted both sides had reasons to want an agreement sooner rather than later. “The blockade is what’s really squeezing the Iranians. It’s strangling them,” he said. A pre-election deal could suit Trump too, easing Gulf tensions and helping bring down petrol prices at home. After the vote, Ross said, the president may feel freer to escalate pressure or consider military options. Tehran, meanwhile, is hedging. Even as it explores a diplomatic exit, Iran is preparing for the possibility of renewed conflict, accusing Washington of using the blockade and the threat of force as instruments of coercion. “Our fingers are on the trigger,” the senior Iranian official said. “The Americans know what they need to do but, because of their excessive demands, the chances of diplomacy resolving this are extremely low.” Regional sources said Iran was prepared to drop, or at least set aside, its demand for transit fees on shipping through Hormuz in order to prioritise ending the blockade. “Iran is not primarily focused on imposing tolls in Hormuz but on preserving its administrative control of the waterway,” the senior official said. “Iran may be willing to defer the toll issue, but they are not going to give up administrative control of the strait.” At the heart of the diplomacy in New York is a fundamental tension. Washington wants pressure to produce concessions, Tehran wants pressure removed before making them, and the Gulf states want the conflict resolved without allowing the region’s strategic waterways to become enduring bargaining chips. In a separate meeting in New York, Gulf leaders pressed Trump for clarity on his strategy beyond the midterms, including whether Washington would resume military action if Iran refused to negotiate. They made clear their rejection of any Iranian control over Hormuz, insisting freedom of navigation be restored and that the strait must not become a tool of coercion — while also urging de-escalation, reflecting Gulf states’ desire to stay out of further confrontation. “It’s still not clear what Trump’s endgame is, or what the alternative to the pressure campaign would be,” said Ebtessam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi. “The Iranians, by contrast, know what they want. They’re reshaping the regional landscape through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb with a clear objective, while Washington has yet to define its roadmap.” Alan Eyre, another former US negotiator, warned that the blockade’s pressure could backfire: rather than softening its position, he said, Tehran was more likely to escalate, believing that any sign of weakness would prove fatal to the regime. Adding to the diplomatic pressure, a coalition of 80 countries called at the