Wars between nations face persistent escalation risk, decades of conflict data suggest

AI Summary

Analysis suggests that wars between nations often escalate beyond initial expectations, with historical evidence showing prolonged and intensified conflicts. Examples include the Korean War and the ongoing Iran conflict, highlighting the unpredictability of war durations and escalation.

Military leaders frequently underestimate how big the wars they engage in will get. Gen. Douglas MacArthur predicted U.S. troops could come home from the Korean War in time for Christmas, just months after the conflict started. But Chinese attacks that winter extended the war for years. And President Donald Trump said in March that the Iran war would be a "short-term excursion," but it has now lasted more than five months, with periods of escalation.