Three-front challenge

AI Summary

Pakistan faces a three-front security challenge from India, cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan, and escalating militant violence within its own provinces. Provinces like Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan are experiencing heightened unrest, terrorism, and separatist insurgencies, challenging national stability.

PAKISTAN’S ruling elites have long regarded the country’s geographical location as a strategic asset enabling it to project itself as a significant regional player and bolster its geopolitical position. But location cuts both ways. It has also been a liability. Few countries have faced the headwinds from their geography as Pakistan. An overbearing and hostile eastern neighbour, contested borders inherited from colonialism, unresolved Kashmir dispute, volatile neighbourhood and a western neighbour roiled by strife and foreign interventions, all combined to create a permanent security dilemma. That dilemma drove the country’s enduring search for stability. Pakistan’s long-standing strategic nightmare was having to confront two ‘hot fronts’ simultaneously. The imperative to avert this shaped its strategic thinking, security policy and strategy. The tyranny of geography always weighed heavily on the country. That has not changed. What has changed is the scale and gravity of the threat. Pakistan now faces a three-front security challenge — from India on its eastern frontier, from cross-border terror attacks emanating from Afghanistan and unrest, terrorism and militant violence at home. The most troubling aspect of the internal security situation is that never before have two of Pakistan’s provinces been so destabilised at the same time. In the past, both saw violence. But it was localised, confined to specific areas, not province-wide. Never before did Azad Jammu and Kashmir erupt with violent public protests as being witnessed today. The use of coercion and strong-arm official actions have only worsened the situation. The arc of Pakistan’s security threats keeps expanding. The spike in militant attacks across KP and Balochistan continues. In the first six months of 2026 there were over 200 terrorist attacks almost entirely by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan in KP, with 300 people killed. The areas of attacks have expanded, which shows a worrying increase in the outlawed group’s reach. Balochistan saw more than 100 attacks in the same period, mostly by the Balochistan Liberation Army. The militant, separatist group has also demonstrated greater reach and diversified its targets. They range from railway tracks, gas pipelines, state buildings and foreign investment projects to the non-Baloch settler population. Meanwhile, the rising number of TTP attacks in the Pakhtun areas of Balochistan indicates its theatre of operations has expanded much beyond KP — even as far as Karachi as the recent attack on the Rangers headquarters reveals. Balochistan has for decades been in crisis and stricken by insurgencies. But the cumulative effect of the failure to address its troubles has left the province completely alienated from the centre. Balochistan’s problem is fundamentally political. People have long felt disenfranchised, with their basic demands ignored. Anger among youth at the province’s exclusion, lack of a legitimate political process and the state’s constant branding of Baloch nationalists and non-violent dissident groups as traitors have all played into the crisis. This has provided fertile ground for outside interference, which has increased in recent years. Instead of pursuing political solutions, the state’s managers have relied mostly on military operations and use of force to deal with the unrest. This has only deepened public disaffection and driven more people into the arms of extremist forces. In KP, governed by the opposition PTI, the security challenge is compounded by the fact that the federal and provincial governments are at loggerheads. They also diverge on how to deal with militancy. The mistrust between the local population and security forces remains a major impediment in the fight against terrorism. The response to militant violence is predicated primarily on kinetic means absent meaningful efforts to win community support. Yet effective counter-insurgency rests heavily on trust. AJK is facing unrest and a virtual public revolt, with the region paralysed by violent protests. This political crisis had been brewing for the past several years. Alienation grew with a governance system run from Islamabad, which also failed to address AJK’s economic problems including youth joblessness. Resultantly, a broad-based coalition of civil society and political groups, the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) emerged to press its economic and political demands. Despite the authorities’ earlier accommodation of some economic grievances, they later banned the committee and used force to deal with the situation. They failed to see the serious implications of losing Kashmiri hearts and minds for Pakistan’s position on India-occupied Kashmir. Already prominent leaders from occupied Kashmir are voicing concern over the loss of life in AJK. The stand-off continues between protesters and law enforcers with no end in sight to the crisis. The issue of reserved refugee seats lies at the heart of the protests. JAAC demands