The Next Little Green Man: AI, Ambiguity, and the Future of Strategic Surprise

AI Summary

The article examines how generative AI could amplify the strategic risks of ambiguity and deception, drawing on Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea as a precedent. It argues that AI may help adversaries exploit slow decision-making in liberal democracies and increase the potential for strategic surprise.

Abstract Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine demonstrated how a relatively simple campaign of deception and ambiguity could exploit the deliberate decision-making process of liberal democracies, delaying any meaningful response long enough for the operation to achieve its objective. Over a decade later, advancements in technology, specifically generative artificial intelligence (AI), now threaten to magnify that vulnerability by allowing … Read more The post The Next Little Green Man: AI, Ambiguity, and the Future of Strategic Surprise appeared first on Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University.