The beneficiaries of war

AI Summary

The US-Iran conflict has not produced clear military winners but has significantly benefited the defense and energy sectors, particularly companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Increased military spending and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have driven up procurement and energy demand amid ongoing geopolitical instability.

WARS are generally assessed through a binary lens. Strategic analysts, policymakers and the media tend to focus on a simple question — who won and who lost? The recent US-Iran war has generated a similar debate. Has Washington been able to achieve its objectives? Has Iran successfully withstood American military pressure and preserved its capacity to resist? But this binary framework overlooks another, often more consequential, dimension of modern warfare. Wars do not merely produce military winners and losers. They also redistribute wealth, accelerate technological change and create commercial opportunities for industries positioned to profit from insecurity. In the case of the US-Iran conflict, the most obvious beneficiaries may ultimately be neither Washington nor Tehran. The two capitals have both paid a substantial price. They have expended military resources, suffered economic disruption and experienced varying degrees of tactical and strategic pain. The conflict may therefore produce no clear geopolitical victor. Yet several sectors have emerged as unmistakable commercial winners. The foremost beneficiary of the US-Iran conflict has been the defence industry. Modern wars consume extraordinary quantities of missiles, interceptors, drones, precision-guided munitions and other military equipment. Every missile fired has to be replaced. Every depleted stockpile creates new procurement requirements. Every perceived vulnerability generates pressure for additional defence spending. The financial results of major US defence companies illustrate this dynamic. Several sectors have emerged as unmistakable commercial winners in the US-Iran conflict. Lockheed Martin reported earnings of $1.8 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $342 million during the same period in 2025. Its sales increased by 11 per cent to $20.1bn, while its backlog reached a record $230bn. Sales in its missiles and fire control segment increased by 19pc to $4.1bn. Similarly, RTX, the parent company of Raytheon, reported Q2 2026 net income of $2.139bn, up from $1.657bn in the corresponding quarter of 2025. Raytheon sales increased by 18pc to $8.269bn, supported by demand for systems such as Patriot, Standard Missile and AMRAAM. A prolonged conflict not only increases the immediate consumption of weapons but also generates a second wave of demand, ie, replenishment of stockpiles. The conflict between the US and Iran has resultantly become a multi-year procurement cycle for these firms. The longer the insecurity persists, the more governments feel compelled to order additional weapons, ammunition and defensive systems. For the military-industrial complex, geopolitical instability can translate into expanding order books. Select firms in the energy sector have been another major beneficiary. The US-Iran war, combined with uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to regional energy flows, created precisely the conditions in which large oil companies, refiners and commodity traders tend to thrive on higher prices, supply uncertainty and extreme market volatility. The figures are striking. ExxonMobil’s Q2 2026 net income reached $14.5bn, compared with $7.08bn in the corresponding period of 2025, which is an increase of almost 105 pc. Similarly, Chevron’s earnings increased dramatically, while Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66 and Valero Energy also recorded major gains as higher energy prices and refining margins transformed geopolitical disruption into exceptional financial returns. The trend was not confined to the US. Shell reported Q2 2026 profits of $9.84bn, compared with $4.26bn in Q2 2025, while British Petroleum reported $5.7bn, compared with $2.34bn during the corresponding period. TotalEnergies, Saudi Aramco, Glencore and Trafigura also benefited from the extraordinary volatility created by the conflict and the resulting disruption in energy markets. The point is not that every energy company automatically benefits from every war. Conflict can also destroy infrastructure, disrupt production and create substantial risks. But the US-Iran war demonstrates how supply disruptions and uncertainty can produce extraordinary gains for companies capable of trading volatility, refining crude and exploiting higher prices. For many firms, instability itself can become profitable. The beneficiaries of modern conflict are no longer limited to companies manufacturing tanks and missiles. Warfare is increasingly dependent on artificial intelligence, cloud computing, satellite data, cybersecurity and real-time battlefield analysis. Palantir Technologies has emerged as one of the glaring examples of this transformation. In Q2 2026, the company generated revenue of $1.94bn, representing 93pc year-on-year growth. Revenue from the US government reached $809m, an increase of 90pc. Microsoft also secured a five-year Pentagon contract worth $9.69bn for Microsoft 365, cloud subscriptions and other services for the US milit