Risk, Order, and Power: The Saudi-Emirati Divergence

AI Summary

In December 2025, UAE-backed forces seized oil-rich provinces in southern Yemen near the Saudi border, only to be repelled by Saudi airstrikes and allied troops within days, marking the first direct military confrontation between forces of the two Gulf states. The Southern Transitional Council subsequently dissolved, signaling a significant rupture in the Saudi-Emirati partnership that has shaped Gulf security for over a decade. The article analyzes the diverging strategic interests and risk appetites of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

In early December 2025, forces backed by the United Arab Emirates swept across six governorates in southern Yemen and seized oil-rich provinces along Saudi Arabia’s border. Within days, Saudi airstrikes and Saudi-backed troops erased their gains. The Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council’s territory in Yemen was reduced to practically nothing. It then quietly declared its dissolution.This drama marked the first direct military confrontation between forces backed by the two Gulf states whose cooperation has shaped the regional security architecture for over a decade. It signifies not merely a tactical disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on an isolated The post Risk, Order, and Power: The Saudi-Emirati Divergence appeared first on War on the Rocks.