Pakistan: 25 years post-2001
AI Summary
Reflecting on 25 years post-9/11, Pakistan remains a frontline state in the global war on terror with mixed outcomes. The country has achieved counterterrorism successes but faces ongoing challenges including internal security threats, economic difficulties, and complex relations with Afghanistan.
THE terrorist events of Sept 11, 2001, changed the world and brought about a new security order. Social engineering took place on a large scale, especially within Muslim societies. Conflict erupted across Africa and Asia, often linked to terrorism. These developments triggered large-scale migration towards the West and strengthened the far right in Western societies. Populism took multiple forms. In short, the world changed course, and an era of increasingly controlled societies emerged, affecting technology, the economy, mobility and politics. The 25th anniversary of the tragic incident has triggered a debate: what has the world gained and lost since these events, and what kind of world emerged in their aftermath? This question is equally important for Pakistan, as it became a front-line state in the global war against terrorism. Pakistan’s 25-year experience can perhaps be summarised in one sentence: the country has failed to defeat terrorism completely, lost Afghanistan, witnessed weakened internal cohesion, experienced the rise of authoritarianism, and its economy remains in disarray. The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in 2021 contributed to renewed challenges, particularly from the banned TTP. Meanwhile, Balochistan remains another major security theatre, with separatist groups targeting security forces, infrastructure, and Chinese interests. Economically, Pakistan received billions of dollars in US assistance and Coalition Support Funds but failed to convert this geopolitical opportunity into lasting economic transformation. Terrorism imposed enormous costs through loss of life, reduced investment, damaged infrastructure, and increased security expenditure. However, Pakistan has also achieved significant strategic successes. Before 9/11, Pakistan was under sanctions because of its nuclear tests. The Kargil conflict had contributed to political instability and military rule, and Pakistan experienced some global isolation. After September 2001, however, Pakistan emerged from isolation to become a front-line ally of the US in its global ‘war on terror’. Pakistan was later designated a major non-Nato ally. However, this partnership came to be characterised by mistrust, particularly over Afghanistan, terrorist sanctuaries, drone strikes, and the 2011 Abbottabad operation. The country’s biggest achievements and major failures have been in counterterrorism. Pakistan’s biggest achievements and major failures have been in counterterrorism. Through operations including Rah-i-Raast, Rah-i-Nijaat, Zarb-i-Azb, and Raddul Fasaad, Pakistan dismantled major terrorist sanctuaries. It ended the ability of terrorist groups to exercise territorial control in areas such as Swat and the former tribal districts. In foreign relations, Pakistan strengthened its strategic partnership with China and expanded ties with the Gulf countries and Türkiye, but its relations with Afghanistan have remained deeply problematic. While it took nearly two decades to fully abandon the use of radical and militant proxies on the external and internal political fronts, two factors played an important role. First, international pressure forced the establishment to take measures against militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. Second, many members of such groups became disillusioned and joined the TTP, Al Qaeda, and IS-K, making it increasingly difficult for security operators to treat and manage these networks separately. Although these groups are no longer openly active in militancy, they still shoulder political and diplomatic baggage. India frequently exploits this issue to confront Pakistan at the diplomatic level and has used it to build pressure against Pakistan, contributing directly to the military confrontation last year. However, the international community increasingly recognises Pakistan’s efforts to overcome its terrorism problem, and India’s terrorism narrative against Pakistan appears to be losing some of its effectiveness internationally. Over the last 25 years, terrorism has emerged as a core problem for the country, while counterterrorism has become one of its key strengths. Pakistan remains among the countries most affected by terrorism. Security concerns have negatively impacted Pakistan-China relations, especially CPEC. At the same time, counterterrorism has provided an avenue for cooperation between the US and Pakistan, and since President Donald Trump took office, the two have developed greater synergy against IS-K and in dealing with the Taliban, apart from their multilevel engagement in the Gulf region. In this re-engagement, Pakistan has lost the strategic vision for Afghanistan that Gen Ziaul Haq and his predecessors had crafted. Terrorism and counterterrorism have changed the country’s structure. Counterterrorism has created an imbalance of power, as civilian governments gradually handed over internal and external security affairs to the establishment and refrained from