Oil Shock Could Turn Super El Niño Into an Inflation Problem Again

AI Summary

A potential super El Niño event combined with an energy price shock from Middle East conflicts is expected to slow global inflation decline. JPMorgan highlights a strong likelihood of intensified El Niño conditions in late 2024, which could add inflationary pressures worldwide, impacting markets and commodities.

The world isn't just staring down another weather event. It's staring down a weather event colliding with a supply-driven oil shock. JPMorgan warned Friday that a "super" El Niño combined with higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict could slow the decline in global inflation next year, adding roughly 0.3 percentage points to headline inflation worldwide. The bank puts the odds of the current El Niño strengthening into a "very strong" or "super" event at 81% by the end of the year, with a 97% probability conditions persist…