Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading

🇺🇸 Bloomberg (US) —

AI Summary

Trading data from Kalshi and Polymarket indicates that many prediction-market bets are long shots with very low odds of winning. The pattern raises questions about whether these platforms function primarily as information tools or as casino-like markets.

Prediction markets tout themselves as “truth machines,” but trading data shows a lot of casino-like bets.

Markets prediction markets Kalshi Polymarket long-shot bets trading behavior

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