Iran plays with fire, but calculates Trump will hold back

AI Summary

Iran is escalating tensions with provocative strikes on ships, calculating that former President Trump will restrain from all-out war. This acts as a high-risk deterrence effort aiming to provoke limited US retaliation without triggering full conflict.

With its defiant strikes on ships, Iran is making a paradoxical and explosively high-risk calculation -- that it can boost its long-term deterrence through actions that invite new US attacks. "Iran's calculation is that calibrated, limited escalation can restore deterrence without crossing the threshold into all-out war."