Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says

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Rystad Energy says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon, even if the United States and Iran reach a limited agreement by mid-2027. A broader settlement remains difficult because of unresolved disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, regional armed groups, and maritime security.

The United States and Iran could reach some form of a limited agreement by the middle of 2027, which would allow oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz to continue to gradually recover, but fundamental differences will remain, and the Middle East situation will remain far from normal next year, according to Rystad Energy. “Achieving a comprehensive settlement would require addressing issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, Tehran-backed armed groups in the region, and the security of maritime shipping, while also taking into…