Ahead of US and Israeli elections, 3-day joint attack on Iran 'would not radically change conflict'

AI Summary

International relations scholar Federico Donelli argues that a three-day US-Israeli attack on Iran would be unlikely to decisively alter the conflict after months of confrontation. He says military pressure may constrain Iran or seek negotiations, but turning it into a lasting political outcome could risk a wider regional crisis.

Jean-Emile Jammine is pleased to welcome Federico Donelli, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Political and Social Sciences at the University of Trieste in Italy. Can another three days of military strikes achieve what eight months of confrontation have failed to deliver? Donelli challenges the assumption that a short, intensive offensive would necessarily produce a decisive political outcome. He argues, "the real question is whether military pressure is intended to constrain Iran's capacity, or to pressure Iran to sit on the table." And whether they can translate that capacity into a sustainable political outcome without provoking a wider regional crisis. Regardless, Donelli reminds us that "Iran still has leverage over the US."